{
  "computed_on": "2026-10-17",
  "method": {
    "after": "sandberg-2018",
    "runs": 200000,
    "seed": 1961,
    "independent_draws": true,
    "galaxies": 100000000000,
    "status": "Decided 2026-10-16 (docs/method.md)"
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "id": "star-formation",
      "symbol": "R*",
      "name": "How many stars are born in the galaxy each year",
      "unit": "stars per year",
      "shape": "log-uniform",
      "low": 1.0,
      "high": 20.0,
      "median": null,
      "spread_orders": null,
      "middle": 4.47213595499958,
      "status": "reviewed",
      "set_on": "2026-10-17",
      "estimates": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "planets",
      "symbol": "fp",
      "name": "The share of stars that have planets",
      "unit": "fraction",
      "shape": "log-uniform",
      "low": 0.5,
      "high": 1.0,
      "median": null,
      "spread_orders": null,
      "middle": 0.7071067811865476,
      "status": "reviewed",
      "set_on": "2026-10-16",
      "estimates": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "habitable-planets",
      "symbol": "ne",
      "name": "Planets per star that could support life",
      "unit": "planets per star",
      "shape": "log-uniform",
      "low": 0.01,
      "high": 1.0,
      "median": null,
      "spread_orders": null,
      "middle": 0.1,
      "status": "reviewed",
      "set_on": "2026-10-16",
      "estimates": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "life",
      "symbol": "fl",
      "name": "The share of planets that could support life on which life actually starts",
      "unit": "fraction",
      "shape": "log-normal-rate",
      "low": 1e-50,
      "high": 1.0,
      "median": 1.0,
      "spread_orders": 50,
      "middle": 0.6321205588285577,
      "status": "reviewed",
      "set_on": "2026-10-16",
      "estimates": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "intelligence",
      "symbol": "fi",
      "name": "The share of planets with life on which it becomes intelligent",
      "unit": "fraction",
      "shape": "log-uniform",
      "low": 0.0001,
      "high": 1.0,
      "median": null,
      "spread_orders": null,
      "middle": 0.01,
      "status": "reviewed",
      "set_on": "2026-10-16",
      "estimates": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "detectable",
      "symbol": "fc",
      "name": "The share of intelligent species that make themselves detectable",
      "unit": "fraction",
      "shape": "log-uniform",
      "low": 0.01,
      "high": 1.0,
      "median": null,
      "spread_orders": null,
      "middle": 0.1,
      "status": "reviewed",
      "set_on": "2026-10-16",
      "estimates": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "lifetime",
      "symbol": "L",
      "name": "How long a civilisation stays detectable, in years",
      "unit": "years",
      "shape": "log-uniform",
      "low": 100.0,
      "high": 10000000000.0,
      "median": null,
      "spread_orders": null,
      "middle": 1000000.0,
      "status": "reviewed",
      "set_on": "2026-10-16",
      "estimates": 7
    }
  ],
  "life_sensitivity": [
    {
      "label": "every power of ten from 0.001 up to 1 equally likely",
      "in_use": false,
      "median": 9.660859418798854,
      "alone_in_galaxy": 0.379555,
      "alone_in_universe": 0.0
    },
    {
      "label": "every power of ten from 1 in 100,000 up to 1 equally likely",
      "in_use": false,
      "median": 0.9741104368390716,
      "alone_in_galaxy": 0.5013,
      "alone_in_universe": 0.0
    },
    {
      "label": "every power of ten from 1 in 10 to the 10 up to 1 equally likely",
      "in_use": false,
      "median": 0.0031988468192215374,
      "alone_in_galaxy": 0.724205,
      "alone_in_universe": 0.011645
    },
    {
      "label": "every power of ten from 1 in 10 to the 22 (one start per observable universe) up to 1 equally likely",
      "in_use": false,
      "median": 3.1447803084493394e-09,
      "alone_in_galaxy": 0.87333,
      "alone_in_universe": 0.38636
    },
    {
      "label": "every power of ten from 1 in 10 to the 30 up to 1 equally likely",
      "in_use": false,
      "median": 3.1526990091690227e-13,
      "alone_in_galaxy": 0.90746,
      "alone_in_universe": 0.550145
    },
    {
      "label": "every power of ten from 1 in 10 to the 50 up to 1 equally likely",
      "in_use": false,
      "median": 3.165668005246623e-23,
      "alone_in_galaxy": 0.94441,
      "alone_in_universe": 0.729715
    },
    {
      "label": "the 2018 paper's shape: a rate centred on one start per planet, spread over fifty orders of magnitude",
      "in_use": true,
      "median": 0.021425000653317983,
      "alone_in_galaxy": 0.57955,
      "alone_in_universe": 0.394825
    }
  ],
  "any_range_first_pass": false,
  "runs": 200000,
  "median": 0.021425000653317983,
  "mean": 6238411.057391593,
  "alone_in_galaxy": 0.57955,
  "alone_in_universe": 0.394825,
  "alone_in_universe_by_galaxy_count": {
    "1e+10": 0.40279,
    "1e+11": 0.394825,
    "1e+12": 0.38692
  },
  "percentiles": {
    "5": 2.9716365658260657e-80,
    "25": 4.658890609472367e-32,
    "50": 0.021425000653317983,
    "75": 420.4477996388521,
    "95": 1446586.3852772317
  },
  "histogram": [
    {
      "log10_from": -236,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -215,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -209,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -208,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -203,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -197,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -196,
      "share": 1e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -193,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -192,
      "share": 1e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -190,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -189,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -186,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -185,
      "share": 1.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -184,
      "share": 1e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -183,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -182,
      "share": 2.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -181,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -180,
      "share": 2e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -179,
      "share": 1.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -178,
      "share": 1e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -177,
      "share": 1.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -176,
      "share": 1e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -175,
      "share": 1e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -174,
      "share": 3.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -173,
      "share": 2e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -172,
      "share": 2.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -171,
      "share": 2e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -170,
      "share": 3.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -169,
      "share": 1.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -168,
      "share": 3.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -167,
      "share": 5e-06
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -166,
      "share": 2.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -165,
      "share": 4e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -164,
      "share": 3.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -163,
      "share": 9e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -162,
      "share": 6.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -161,
      "share": 2.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -160,
      "share": 3.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -159,
      "share": 6e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -158,
      "share": 2.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -157,
      "share": 6e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -156,
      "share": 4e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -155,
      "share": 4.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -154,
      "share": 6.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -153,
      "share": 5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -152,
      "share": 5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -151,
      "share": 6.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -150,
      "share": 0.000105
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -149,
      "share": 5.5e-05
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -148,
      "share": 0.0001
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -147,
      "share": 0.00012
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -146,
      "share": 0.000115
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -145,
      "share": 0.000135
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -144,
      "share": 0.00016
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -143,
      "share": 0.00012
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -142,
      "share": 0.000125
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -141,
      "share": 0.00013
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -140,
      "share": 0.000135
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -139,
      "share": 0.00021
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -138,
      "share": 0.00023
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -137,
      "share": 0.000145
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -136,
      "share": 0.000205
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -135,
      "share": 0.00013
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -134,
      "share": 0.00016
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -133,
      "share": 0.00017
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -132,
      "share": 0.00025
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -131,
      "share": 0.000205
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -130,
      "share": 0.00025
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -129,
      "share": 0.00025
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -128,
      "share": 0.000225
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -127,
      "share": 0.00027
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -126,
      "share": 0.000345
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -125,
      "share": 0.000315
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -124,
      "share": 0.000365
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -123,
      "share": 0.00038
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -122,
      "share": 0.000395
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -121,
      "share": 0.000325
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -120,
      "share": 0.000405
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -119,
      "share": 0.0004
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -118,
      "share": 0.000465
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -117,
      "share": 0.00042
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -116,
      "share": 0.000505
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -115,
      "share": 0.0005
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -114,
      "share": 0.000585
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -113,
      "share": 0.000525
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -112,
      "share": 0.00063
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -111,
      "share": 0.0006
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -110,
      "share": 0.000785
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -109,
      "share": 0.00065
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -108,
      "share": 0.00059
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -107,
      "share": 0.00073
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -106,
      "share": 0.000595
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -105,
      "share": 0.00078
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -104,
      "share": 0.00077
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -103,
      "share": 0.000855
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -102,
      "share": 0.00084
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -101,
      "share": 0.0009
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -100,
      "share": 0.001075
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -99,
      "share": 0.0011
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -98,
      "share": 0.0011
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -97,
      "share": 0.001185
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -96,
      "share": 0.001185
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -95,
      "share": 0.001235
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -94,
      "share": 0.001295
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -93,
      "share": 0.00116
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -92,
      "share": 0.00133
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -91,
      "share": 0.001485
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -90,
      "share": 0.00155
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -89,
      "share": 0.00145
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -88,
      "share": 0.001575
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -87,
      "share": 0.00156
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -86,
      "share": 0.00178
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -85,
      "share": 0.00159
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -84,
      "share": 0.001765
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -83,
      "share": 0.00194
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -82,
      "share": 0.00198
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -81,
      "share": 0.001925
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -80,
      "share": 0.001955
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -79,
      "share": 0.00233
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -78,
      "share": 0.002115
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -77,
      "share": 0.00245
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -76,
      "share": 0.002405
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -75,
      "share": 0.002445
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -74,
      "share": 0.00256
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -73,
      "share": 0.00276
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -72,
      "share": 0.002805
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -71,
      "share": 0.002825
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -70,
      "share": 0.002765
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -69,
      "share": 0.00295
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -68,
      "share": 0.003065
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -67,
      "share": 0.00307
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -66,
      "share": 0.00306
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -65,
      "share": 0.003215
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -64,
      "share": 0.00298
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -63,
      "share": 0.0035
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -62,
      "share": 0.00336
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -61,
      "share": 0.003805
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -60,
      "share": 0.003915
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -59,
      "share": 0.003735
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -58,
      "share": 0.00402
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -57,
      "share": 0.004135
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -56,
      "share": 0.004155
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -55,
      "share": 0.004035
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -54,
      "share": 0.00422
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -53,
      "share": 0.00476
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -52,
      "share": 0.004505
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -51,
      "share": 0.004375
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -50,
      "share": 0.00451
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -49,
      "share": 0.00462
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -48,
      "share": 0.00491
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -47,
      "share": 0.00486
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -46,
      "share": 0.005195
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -45,
      "share": 0.0052
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -44,
      "share": 0.00541
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -43,
      "share": 0.005355
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -42,
      "share": 0.00539
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -41,
      "share": 0.005525
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -40,
      "share": 0.005755
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -39,
      "share": 0.00589
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -38,
      "share": 0.005875
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -37,
      "share": 0.00577
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -36,
      "share": 0.006075
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -35,
      "share": 0.00635
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -34,
      "share": 0.005995
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -33,
      "share": 0.00593
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -32,
      "share": 0.00616
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -31,
      "share": 0.006605
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -30,
      "share": 0.006725
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -29,
      "share": 0.006215
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -28,
      "share": 0.006345
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -27,
      "share": 0.0067
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -26,
      "share": 0.00683
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -25,
      "share": 0.006765
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -24,
      "share": 0.0073
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -23,
      "share": 0.00697
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -22,
      "share": 0.007225
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -21,
      "share": 0.007235
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -20,
      "share": 0.007275
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -19,
      "share": 0.00719
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -18,
      "share": 0.00722
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -17,
      "share": 0.007345
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -16,
      "share": 0.0077
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -15,
      "share": 0.00772
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -14,
      "share": 0.008045
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -13,
      "share": 0.007365
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -12,
      "share": 0.007905
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -11,
      "share": 0.007965
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -10,
      "share": 0.007455
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -9,
      "share": 0.007675
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -8,
      "share": 0.00755
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -7,
      "share": 0.007925
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -6,
      "share": 0.00775
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -5,
      "share": 0.009125
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -4,
      "share": 0.013655
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -3,
      "share": 0.02465
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -2,
      "share": 0.03851
    },
    {
      "log10_from": -1,
      "share": 0.052465
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 0,
      "share": 0.06195
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 1,
      "share": 0.067245
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 2,
      "share": 0.066435
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 3,
      "share": 0.063705
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 4,
      "share": 0.05785
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 5,
      "share": 0.04689
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 6,
      "share": 0.03205
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 7,
      "share": 0.01731
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 8,
      "share": 0.005825
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 9,
      "share": 0.001145
    },
    {
      "log10_from": 10,
      "share": 4.5e-05
    }
  ],
  "extremes": {
    "from_estimates": {
      "pessimist": 2e-68,
      "optimist": 5000000000000.0,
      "factors": {
        "star-formation": {
          "pessimist": 1.0,
          "optimist": 100.0
        },
        "planets": {
          "pessimist": 0.1,
          "optimist": 1.0
        },
        "habitable-planets": {
          "pessimist": 1e-05,
          "optimist": 5.0
        },
        "life": {
          "pessimist": 1e-50,
          "optimist": 1.0
        },
        "intelligence": {
          "pessimist": 2e-11,
          "optimist": 1.0
        },
        "detectable": {
          "pessimist": 0.01,
          "optimist": 1.0
        },
        "lifetime": {
          "pessimist": 10.0,
          "optimist": 10000000000.0
        }
      }
    },
    "from_ranges": {
      "pessimist": 5e-57,
      "optimist": 200000000000.0
    }
  },
  "verify_open": 1
}